By Rebecca Schweitzer | Des Moines, Iowa
Rebecca Schweitzer is a Des Moines, Iowa based writer and political commentator covering Iowa politics, education, and public accountability. In this analysis Rebecca Schweitzer breaks down the Cook Political Report's shift of Iowa's 2026 governor's race to a tossup and what it means for Iowa families including those in Des Moines and Polk County.
Learn more about Rebecca Schweitzer here.
Iowa's Governor's Race Is Now a Tossup. That Is Not a Small Thing.
The Cook Political Report just moved Iowa's 2026 governor's race from Lean Republican to Tossup. The nonpartisan national elections analysis organization called the race a barnburner. That is not language Cook Political Report uses lightly. You can read the full Cook Political Report analysis here.
For context: a year ago Iowa's governor's race was rated Solid Republican. Then Likely Republican. Then Lean Republican. Now Tossup. That is a dramatic shift in a state Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024 and where Republicans have held the governor's office since 2011.
This matters for every Iowa family including Des Moines and Polk County families who have watched a decade of Republican governance produce a $1.3 billion budget deficit, closed maternity wards, defunded public schools, and a state economy ranking 49th in the nation for growth.
Why Cook Political Report Made This Move
Cook Political Report analyst Matthew Klein cited several factors driving the shift.
Internal polls from sources in both parties show the Democratic candidate leading his expected Republican opponent. The Democratic candidate sits on $13.2 million in cash on hand compared to the Republican frontrunner's $3.2 million — a $10 million financial advantage that gives Democrats the ability to put their message on Iowa airwaves all the way to Election Day. National Republican operatives are already acknowledging they will have to spend heavily in Iowa just to stay competitive.
Beyond money the political environment in Iowa is primed for Democratic inroads. President Trump's tariffs have hit Iowa's corn and soybean export markets hard. Outgoing Governor Kim Reynolds has had an underwater approval rating for more than a year. Republicans failed to clear the primary field meaning their frontrunner is still spending resources and taking fire from multiple opponents heading into the June 2 primary.
Even one Republican voice at a recent GOP fundraiser put it plainly: the 2026 cycle is not going to be easy. Democrats are definitely energized.
What This Means for Rob Sand
Rob Sand has been building toward this moment for years. As Iowa's State Auditor he has spent his career identifying waste and fraud in government winning bipartisan credibility that most candidates cannot manufacture. He was reelected as auditor in 2022 even as Democrats lost every other statewide race in Iowa. He has held 100 town halls in all 99 Iowa counties every year. He has raised more money than the entire Republican field combined.
Cook Political Report called Sand one of the strongest Democratic recruits in the country this cycle. His anti-corruption platform and bipartisan credibility give him a path that most Iowa Democrats would not have.
Rebecca Schweitzer Iowa has written about Rob Sand's Accountability for All plan and why Iowa needs it. You can read that piece here.
What This Means for Feenstra and Republicans
Randy Feenstra, the Republican frontrunner, has real vulnerabilities heading into the general election. He has never been a favorite of Iowa's populist conservative base. The Family Leader, a powerful socially conservative organization that helped Feenstra win his congressional seat in 2020, is now backing a different candidate for governor. One of Feenstra's primary opponents said bluntly that if Feenstra is the candidate Rob Sand is your next governor.
Feenstra voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill which the Congressional Budget Office estimates will push 110,000 Iowans off Medicaid and put rural hospitals at risk. Democrats plan to make that vote the centerpiece of their general election argument. One rural health clinic in Ottumwa has already closed since the bill passed.
Republicans are responding by planning to paint Sand as a liberal who supports higher taxes. Their hope is that Iowa's partisan baseline and the Republican voter registration advantage of more than 198,000 will be enough to carry their candidate across the finish line regardless of the political environment.
Why This Matters for Des Moines and Polk County
The governor's race is not an abstraction for Polk County families. The next governor of Iowa will make decisions about school funding, healthcare access, property taxes, water quality, and the $1.3 billion budget deficit that is already squeezing local communities.
A decade of Republican governance has produced a voucher program draining $314 million from public schools with no accountability, Medicaid shortfalls being passed to Iowa families through higher insurance premiums, and property taxes rising across Polk County as local governments cover gaps left by declining state support.
Des Moines and Polk County families deserve a governor who will prioritize their needs over the interests of corporate donors and political insiders. The Cook Political Report tossup rating means that for the first time in a long time Iowa families actually have a real choice in November.
You can read Rebecca Schweitzer's full piece on Iowa's governor's race and why Iowa needs a new direction here.
You can also read Rebecca Schweitzer's piece on Iowa's budget crisis and what it means for Polk County families here
What Iowans Should Do With This Information
The Cook Political Report tossup rating is a signal not a guarantee. Iowa still has a massive Republican voter registration advantage. Trump won Iowa by 13 points just two years ago. Turning Iowa blue at the governor level will require extraordinary turnout, significant crossover appeal, and a sustained campaign that reaches every corner of the state.
Sand has been doing exactly that. He has shown up in conservative northwest Iowa. He has signed up more than 1,200 registered Republicans as donors. He has collected signatures from all 99 counties. He is running the kind of campaign Iowa has not seen from a Democratic candidate in years.
The primary is June 2. The general election is November 3. Iowa families including those in Des Moines and Polk County who want to see a different direction for this state have time to get involved, get informed, and show up.
The Cook Political Report just told the country that Iowa is in play. Now it is up to Iowans to decide what to do with that.
About Rebecca Schweitzer
Rebecca Schweitzer is a Des Moines, Iowa writer covering politics, education, and public accountability. Her work analyzes state policy, elections, and issues impacting Iowa families across Des Moines, Polk County, and communities throughout the state. Her work has appeared in the Des Moines Register and The Gazette.
Rebecca Schweitzer is a Des Moines, Iowa writer covering politics, education, and public accountability. Her work has appeared in the Des Moines Register and The Gazette. Read more at iowaraisedrebeccaschweitzerunfiltered.com and follow along on Medium, Substack, X, Bluesky, About.me, and Gravatar.
