By Rebecca Schweitzer | Des Moines, Iowa
Rebecca Schweitzer is a Des Moines, Iowa based writer covering Iowa politics, public accountability, and issues impacting everyday Iowa families. In this piece Rebecca Schweitzer examines Iowa's growing prison overcrowding crisis and asks whether the state's proposed three strikes law will make things better or significantly worse for Iowa communities including Des Moines and Polk County.
As a Des Moines based writer Rebecca Schweitzer covers the decisions made at the Iowa Statehouse and what they mean in practice for families across Polk County and the state.
Read more from Rebecca Schweitzer, a Des Moines, Iowa writer, here.
Iowa's Prisons Are Already at a Breaking Point. A New Law Could Push Them Further.
Iowa sheriffs are sounding the alarm. The state's prison system is already 25 percent over capacity. County jails across Iowa are shuffling inmates at significant cost. And legislators are moving forward with a three strikes law that independent analysts say could require $474 million per year in new prison construction just to keep up.
For Des Moines and Polk County families this is not an abstract criminal justice debate. It is a question about public safety, local government costs, and whether Iowa's approach to crime is actually making communities safer or just more expensive.
How Bad Is the Overcrowding Problem Right Now
Iowa's Department of Corrections prisons are currently operating at nearly 125 percent of capacity. The Iowa Medical and Classification Center in Oakdale is operating at 171 percent of capacity. The state's total prison population is approximately 8,700 inmates in a system designed to hold just under 7,000. You can read the Department of Corrections daily statistics here: doc.iowa.gov
When state prisons overflow the problem moves to county jails. County jails were designed to hold people awaiting trial or serving short sentences not long term state inmates. But across Iowa county jails are filling up with state inmates that the prison system cannot accommodate.
Scott County in eastern Iowa has 394 jail beds and it is still not enough. About 60 inmates are currently housed in other counties. Scott County pays approximately $55 per day per inmate to house them elsewhere. That cost comes out of county budgets which means it ultimately comes out of local taxpayers.
Iowa sheriffs have called this a breaking point. They are not wrong.
What the Three Strikes Bill Would Do
The Iowa House passed a three strikes bill by a 68 to 23 vote. The bill creates a point based system for habitual offenders. One point for serious felonies and aggravated misdemeanors involving abuse or assault. Half a point for other serious offenses. When someone accumulates three points over a 20 year period they face a mandatory 20 year prison sentence with no possibility of parole.
The goal as supporters describe it is to stop the revolving door of repeat offenders. Republican Representative Steve Holt said plainly that the current system rewards bad behavior and enables continued crime by people who have demonstrated they have no interest in being rehabilitated.
That argument has real appeal. Iowa families who have watched violent repeat offenders cycle through the system understand the frustration behind it.
But the numbers attached to this bill are serious and Iowa taxpayers deserve to know them.
What It Would Actually Cost Iowa
The Legislative Services Agency, the nonpartisan body that analyzes the cost of legislation, found that the fiscal impact of the three strikes bill will be significant. Based on projected numbers the agency estimates it would cost $474 million per year to build enough new prisons to house the additional inmates the mandatory sentences would produce.
Iowa's prison system is already 25 percent over capacity. For every person who goes in under a 20 year mandatory minimum someone else is being released early to make room. The math does not work in favor of public safety.
Democratic Representative Dan Gosa voted for the legislation but introduced an amendment to provide relief to counties and county jail staff. He warned directly that without that relief counties' only option will be to increase property taxes to pay for increased personnel costs.
That warning matters for Polk County homeowners who are already dealing with rising property taxes and a state that has not delivered meaningful relief despite two years of promises.
What Other States Learned About Three Strikes Laws
Iowa is not the first state to consider a three strikes law. California enacted one of the most sweeping three strikes laws in the country in 1994. The evidence from that experience and others across the nation is not encouraging.
A University of California Riverside criminologist studied California's three strikes law and found it did nothing to reduce the crime rate. Violent crime decreased at about the same rate in California as in states that never passed a three strikes law. The research found there is not a single shred of scientific evidence to show that three strikes caused a reduction in violence. You can read that research here.
The Justice Policy Institute studied three strikes states and concluded the law was a failure finding that crime declines were not more pronounced in states with three strikes laws than in states without them.
Research published in academic journals found that in some cases three strikes laws were associated with increases in crime particularly homicide. One major cross state analysis found that homicide rates actually increased on average after a three strikes law was adopted.
California's own nonpartisan Legislative Analyst Office reviewed the law after more than a decade and found there is little consensus among researchers about its impact on public safety. Crime had been declining nationally before California's three strikes law passed and continued declining at similar rates in states that never adopted it. You can read that analysis here.
The National Institute of Justice has found that imprisonment is an ineffective way of minimizing crimes and that increasing the severity of punishment does little to deter crime. What research does show is that the certainty of being caught matters more to potential offenders than the length of a sentence.
States that enacted strict three strikes laws in the 1990s saw dramatic increases in incarceration costs without corresponding long term reductions in crime. Iowa appears to be moving toward the same outcome.
What This Means for Des Moines and Polk County, According to Rebecca Schweitzer
Rebecca Schweitzer has written about Iowa's budget crisis and what it means for Polk County families. You can read that piece here.
The prison overcrowding crisis connects directly to that budget story. Iowa is spending money it does not have to manage a prison system that is already beyond capacity. Adding a mandatory sentencing structure that analysts estimate will require nearly half a billion dollars per year in new construction is not a fiscally conservative position. It is an enormous commitment of public resources with no clear plan for how to pay for it.
Polk County families who depend on public schools, healthcare, and local infrastructure are already feeling the squeeze of a $1.3 billion state budget deficit. A prison system that requires hundreds of millions more in spending makes that squeeze worse not better.
Is There a Better Way
Accountability for violent and repeat offenders matters. Iowa communities including Des Moines deserve to be safe and people who commit serious crimes should face real consequences.
But accountability and smart policy are not the same thing. A three strikes law that costs $474 million per year in new prison construction without evidence that it reduces crime is not accountability. It is an expensive political statement backed by decades of research showing it does not work as promised.
Rob Sand has made government accountability and criminal justice reform a centerpiece of his campaign for governor. You can read Rebecca Schweitzer's piece on Sand's Accountability for All plan here.
Iowa lawmakers who are serious about public safety should be asking harder questions. Why is the prison system already 25 percent over capacity. What is the plan for housing the additional inmates a three strikes law will produce. Who is going to pay for the new prisons. And what happens to county jails and county budgets in the meantime.
Iowa sheriffs who work in these facilities every day are saying this is a breaking point. Iowa lawmakers should be listening to them rather than repeating the expensive mistakes other states made thirty years ago.
About Rebecca Schweitzer and Her Work in Iowa
Rebecca Schweitzer is a Des Moines, Iowa writer covering politics, education, and public accountability. Her work analyzes state policy, elections, and issues impacting Iowa families across Des Moines, Polk County, and communities throughout Iowa. Her work has appeared in the Des Moines Register and The Gazette.
Read more at iowaraisedrebeccaschweitzerunfiltered.com and follow along on on Medium, Substack, X, Bluesky, About.me, and Gravatar.
