By Rebecca Schweitzer | Des Moines, Iowa
Rebecca Schweitzer is a Des Moines, Iowa based writer covering Iowa politics, public accountability, and issues impacting everyday Iowa families. I grew up on an Iowa farm and my father still farms today. In this piece Rebecca Schweitzer breaks down what the trade war with China is actually doing to Iowa soybean farmers and why the bailout checks are not solving the problem.
As a Des Moines based writer Rebecca Schweitzer covers the decisions made in Washington and what they mean in practice for Iowa farm families across Polk County and the state.
Read more from Rebecca Schweitzer, a Des Moines, Iowa writer, here.
Iowa Soybean Farmers Are in Trouble. Tariffs Are a Big Reason Why.
China used to be Iowa's most important customer for soybeans. Last year the United States exported nearly $24.5 billion worth of soybeans and China accounted for more than $12.5 billion of that. More than half of Iowa's soybean exports went to China.
That relationship is now broken.
China placed a 34 percent tariff on American soybeans in response to Trump administration trade policy. Chinese buyers have shifted to Brazil and Argentina where they have locked in millions of tons of contracts. For the current crop year China has placed essentially zero new soybean orders with American farmers. Iowa soybean farmers are heading into planting season with full silos, falling prices, and no clear path back to their largest export market.
I grew up on an Iowa farm. My father still farms today. This is not abstract trade policy to me. This is the reality Iowa farm families are living right now.
Iowa Farm Bankruptcies Are Rising Fast
The financial pressure on Iowa farms is not just showing up in commodity prices. It is showing up in bankruptcy court.
Iowa recorded 18 farm bankruptcy filings in 2025, a 220 percent increase from the year before, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. Iowa had the second most farm bankruptcies in the nation during the first half of 2025, already doubling the total from the prior year and reaching the highest level since 2021. You can read the American Farm Bureau's full bankruptcy analysis here: fb.org/market-intel/farm-bankruptcies-continued-to-climb-in-2025
Joseph Peiffer, a bankruptcy attorney in Cedar Rapids who has worked with farmers since the farm crisis of the 1980s, described what he is seeing as extreme financial distress at a level higher than he has seen in a long time.
Nationally farm bankruptcies increased 46 percent in 2025 reaching 315 filings, up from 216 in 2024. The Midwest accounted for 121 of those filings, a 70 percent increase from the prior year. Iowa farm income is projected to drop 24 percent in 2026 for a total loss of approximately $3 billion compared to the prior year.
Total farm debt nationally is projected to rise 5.2 percent to a record $624.7 billion in 2026 while interest expenses are expected to reach a record $33 billion across the farm economy. Iowa farmers are burning through working capital and margins are thin or below water as Aaron Lehman, president of the Iowa Farmers Union, described it. For some farmers that puts them on the brink.
This is what a farm crisis looks like before it becomes a headline.
What Happened to the China Relationship
The trade war with China over soybeans did not start in 2026. It started in 2018 when China imposed retaliatory tariffs on American soybeans after the Trump administration first raised duties on Chinese imports. Iowa soybean farmers lost an estimated $1.5 billion in sales during that first trade war.
The relationship partially recovered. China agreed to buy American soybeans again. Iowa farmers rebuilt those customer relationships over years of work. Then tariffs escalated again in 2025 and China walked away again.
Aaron Lehman, president of the Iowa Farmers Union, described the damage clearly: years of investment in trade development and overseas buyer relationships are being eroded by a trade policy that has made the United States appear unreliable as a long-term supplier. Foreign buyers he noted often do not return even years after a trade disruption ends.
That last point is the one Iowa farmers understand in their bones. Losing a customer is hard. Getting them back is harder. Getting them back after you have lost them twice may be nearly impossible.
The Fertilizer Problem Nobody Is Talking About
Lost export markets are only part of the financial squeeze Iowa farmers are facing. The cost of growing crops is rising sharply at the same time prices are falling and that combination is what is driving farmers toward bankruptcy.
Fertilizer accounts for 33 to 44 percent of a farmer's annual operating costs depending on the crop according to USDA data. And tariffs have made fertilizer significantly more expensive.
More than 80 percent of American potash supply comes from Canada. The Trump administration placed a 25 percent tariff on Canadian imports. Full pass-through of that tariff could increase potash prices by more than $100 per ton for supplies sourced from Canada according to University of Illinois agricultural economists. You can read that analysis here.
Current retail fertilizer prices in Iowa reflect those pressures. As of March 2026 potash was averaging approximately $487 per ton. Anhydrous ammonia was averaging $942 per ton. Urea was averaging $624 per ton. Compared to a year earlier all eight major fertilizers were higher in price. UAN28 nitrogen was up 33 percent. Anhydrous and urea were each up 22 percent. You can read current Iowa fertilizer price data here.
The Iran war has added another layer of pressure. The war bottled up shipping through the Strait of Hormuz restricting global fertilizer supplies and pushing prices even higher. Fertilizer prices could remain elevated through 2027 according to Rabobank analysts.
Iowa farmers are getting squeezed from both ends at once. Lower prices for what they sell. Higher costs for what they need to grow it.
What This Means for Iowa Farm Finances
Iowa soybean farmers are facing a financial squeeze from multiple directions simultaneously.
Equipment prices are up because tariffs on steel and aluminum have made machinery more expensive to produce. John Deere estimates tariffs will cost the company $1.2 billion in 2026. CNH Industrial whose brands include Case IH and New Holland has raised prices on 2026 model equipment. AGCO maker of Fendt and Massey Ferguson described absorbing a large pile of costs and spreading increases across its product lines. Those costs ultimately land on Iowa farmers purchasing or financing new equipment.
Iowa farmers are price takers not price makers. They cannot pass rising costs along to the market the way a manufacturer can. When tariffs disrupt trade or invite retaliation commodity prices fall while input bills stay elevated. That financial reality is what is driving the surge in farm bankruptcies across Iowa and the Midwest.
You can read Rebecca Schweitzer's earlier piece on Iowa farmers and what Republican policies are actually doing to them here.
The Bailout Is Not a Solution
The Trump administration has announced farm assistance payments to help Iowa farmers weather the trade war. Soybean farmers are receiving approximately $30.88 per acre in bridge assistance. Corn farmers are receiving $44.36 per acre.
Iowa farmers are not ungrateful for the help. But as Tom Carman, an Iowa farmer from Urbana put it plainly: as a farmer we want to just be able to sell our product in an open market and be able to do it freely and not have to get the subsidies.
That is the voice of Iowa agriculture. Farmers want markets not checks. They want the ability to sell what they grow to the customers they have built relationships with over decades. A government payment covers some of the loss. It does not replace the market. It does not rebuild the trust that China once had in American suppliers. And it does not cover the full gap between what Iowa soybean farmers are losing and what the assistance program pays out.
The American Soybean Association has noted that even with assistance payments soybean farmers face large losses this year that are uncovered by current programs. You can read the American Soybean Association's full analysis here.
Brazil and Argentina Are the Real Winners
While Iowa farmers struggle Brazil and Argentina are the beneficiaries of American trade disruption.
Brazil now accounts for more than 70 percent of China's soybean imports. When the United States imposed tariffs and China retaliated Iowa farmers lost their market and Brazilian farmers filled it. In September 2025 the United States announced a $20 billion currency swap with Argentina. Argentina immediately suspended its export tax on soybeans and sold 5.1 million metric tons to outside buyers primarily China in just two days.
American trade policy created the opening and South American competitors walked right through it. Iowa soybean farmers are paying the price.
What This Means for Des Moines and Polk County
The soybean crisis is not just a farm story. It is an Iowa economy story and it reaches Des Moines and Polk County in ways that are easy to overlook.
Iowa's agricultural economy connects to food processing plants, grain elevators, trucking companies, rail operations, equipment dealers, and rural communities across the state. When Iowa soybean prices fall and farm income drops those ripple effects move through every sector of the state economy. Local businesses lose customers. County tax revenues fall. Rural communities that are already hollowing out face even more pressure.
Iowa is heading into a $1.3 billion state budget deficit at the same time its agricultural economy is under severe stress. Those two crises are not separate. They are connected. You can read Rebecca Schweitzer's piece on Iowa's budget crisis and what it means for Polk County families here.
What Iowa Farmers Actually Need
Iowa farm families do not need to be told that trade is complicated. They understand global markets better than most. What they need is a trade policy that prioritizes their ability to sell what they grow rather than using agriculture as leverage in geopolitical disputes.
Iowa farmers need stable long term trade relationships with China and other export markets. They need a farm bill that provides certainty and a real safety net. They need input costs that reflect actual market conditions not tariff driven inflation. They need fertilizer they can afford. And they need a government that treats them as partners in American economic strength rather than collateral damage in a trade war.
The 2026 governor's race and Iowa's Senate race are both being decided against the backdrop of this agricultural crisis. Every candidate running for office in Iowa in 2026 should have to answer directly: what is your plan to restore Iowa's soybean export markets and what will you do for Iowa farm families who are facing another year of negative returns.
You can read Rebecca Schweitzer's piece on Iowa's 2026 Senate race and what is at stake here.
About Rebecca Schweitzer and Her Work in Iowa
Rebecca Schweitzer is a Des Moines, Iowa writer covering politics, education, and public accountability. Her work analyzes state policy, elections, and issues impacting Iowa families across Des Moines, Polk County, and communities throughout Iowa. Her work has appeared in the Des Moines Register and The Gazette.
Read more at iowaraisedrebeccaschweitzerunfiltered.com and follow along on Medium, Substack, X, Bluesky, About.me, and Gravatar.
